Issue V

US President-elect Donald Trump has discussed many of his plans for when he takes up office this coming January. One of his heavily discussed threats is the potential imposition of a 25% tariff on Mexican imports. Rooted in his xenophobic attitude towards migrants, Trump has threatened Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum with these tariffs against her country if she fails to stop the movement of migrants and drugs across the border. However, President Sheinbaum did not take this threat or his disrespect toward her country lightly.

Quick to stand strong against Trump’s remarks, Sheinbaum suggested Mexico’s potential retaliation against the United States through tariffs of their own. “One tariff would be followed by another in response, and so on until we put at risk common businesses,” Sheinbaum said. The act of implementing tariffs on imported goods is in no way positive and will ultimately do more harm to the United States. It is Trump’s very own citizens who will face the repercussions of higher prices when it comes to purchasing imports. 

She further responded to Trump’s remarks by criticizing the United States' spending on weapons: “If a percentage of what the United States spends on war were dedicated to peace and development, that would address the underlying causes of migration.” She also criticized the U.S. for its own problems with drugs, discussing how it “is a problem of public health and consumption in your country’s society.” It is well known that the United States is one of the largest consumers of illicit drugs with one of the highest rates of consumption in the world. However, this information is often disregarded or left unmentioned in the discussion of migrants, Mexico, and the prejudices held against them. 

Whether Trump was making empty threats or not can still not be determined until he takes office this January. Before then, it is just a waiting game for all that is to come; however, regardless of the potential outcome, President Sheinbaum seems prepared to fight strongly against Trump’s threats and potential plans against her country. 

It has been nearly 14 months since the October 7th attacks and the subsequent horrors that followed. While the main conflict in Gaza is between Israel and Gaza, several other powers are at play. It was only on Wednesday, November 17th, that Hezbollah became heavily embedded in the conflict. Since October 8th, Hezbollah has been a staunch ally of Hamas and vowed to continue fighting back until Israel stopped its rampage in Gaza. However, this stance shifted after Lebanon experienced its own destruction.

In September, Israel began its ground invasion of southern Lebanon and launched attacks on Hezbollah militants and leaders, including through exploding pagers and the assassination of top Hamas leader Hasan Nasrallah. These actions, along with rocket attacks, have displaced an immense population, adding to the nearly 1.2 million Lebanese people displaced since last October and resulting in over 3,760 deaths. According to the ceasefire, Hezbollah is required to withdraw north of the Litani River, and Israel must retreat back to its borders. There is no telling if the ceasefire will hold or for how long, but with international forces involved and extensive damage sustained, Hezbollah is expected to struggle to regroup to its prior strength. This is a hard truth for Hezbollah members and the constantly targeted Shia community within Lebanon. However, perhaps the most disappointed are those outside Lebanon's borders: Iran.

This axis has been in development for decades, beginning with Hezbollah's formation in the 1980s in response to Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon. Over time, other groups joined. All despise Israel and have taken action against it since October 7th, with the Houthis disrupting shipping in the Red Sea and Syria and Iraq launching rockets into Israel, all with support from Iran. Iran continues to fund these organizations as it views itself as the leading Islamic power in the Middle East and seeks to influence its neighbors to sever ties with its enemies: Israel and its top ally, the United States.

The biggest challenge to Iran’s safety and power is Israel, with its superior air force and military capabilities, including nuclear weapons. In addition, Iran's rival list includes Saudi Arabia. As the largest Shia power in the region, Iran competes with Saudi Arabia, the largest Sunni power, not only in terms of Islamic principles but also for influence. A significant reason Iran backs the Houthis in Yemen is their opposition to the Saudi government. Currently, Saudi Arabia is forming alliances and partnerships with the West, while Iran remains isolated, with its primary ally being Russia.

Given the significant financial and reputational investment in these groups, why doesn’t Iran fight these nations directly? Iran’s foreign policy focuses on empowering proxy groups to wage their shared ideological battles. However, it is unwilling to risk the total destruction of the nation it has maintained since 1979. Iranian leaders know they cannot compete against Israel’s superior military, especially if America intervenes—a scenario that is not difficult to foresee.

As tragedy continues to tear through the Levant, displacing families and ending bloodlines, Iran will continue to play its shadowy game of chess on the board of Middle Eastern politics.